Today marks day 58 of the NHL lockout. 326 Games have been canceled and the winter classic has been canceled (rescheduled to a regular game). Some of you may have heard some chatter last week as the NHL and NHLPA met 7 times in 9 days through Sunday (yesterday). I want to summarize what you've seen, what this past week was about, and what the future holds in these negotiations and if you're going to be asking for B's tickets by Christmas or not...
The NHL made an offer this week. An offer that should've been made last month before the Oct. 16th deadline(the deadline to play a full 82-game schedule). The offer they made this week was an offer that would've been accepted (or thought over very very much by the players) had it been made over a month ago...
NHL's New Deal: Based on the principles of a full 82 game schedule (keep in mind this is a 6-10 year CBA so terms must be expressed in the idea of a normal full season) that the revenue will be 50/50 split with a 2yr "Make-Whole" provision paid for by the owners. In year 1 the owners would pay the players 54.3% of HRR (Hockey Related Revenues which last year were at $3.303b), which totals around $149m and factors in a roughly 2% interest factor for the players since they are not getting their entire normal salary. Year 2 would be 51.7% of HRR, totaling $62m above the 50/50 this time, also factoring in 2% interest. By year 3 the split would be 50/50 of HRR.
Three things to take away here... First, if this deal was made in earnest 6 weeks ago, there would probably have been some tweaking here, but ultimately would've been worked out... Second, this deal wasn't made 6 weeks ago, and there is not a full season to negotiate these dollars with anymore, thus if a deal is to be struck with these general ideas, the players would be receiving approximately 20-25% less of the overall value of this year's money simply due to a shortened season... Third, this plan is all centered around the assumption of an annual 5% increase in HRR growth. Everyone is beginning to feel the heat that the league's growth may not carry over without hockey being played, the HBO series canceled (24/7), and the winter classic off the table... All of which will have to have some effect on the growth of the sport not only this year, but for the next 2-4yrs depending on how much hockey we lose here
This proposal also has non-HRR factors as well... The NHL's proposal also includes a limit to 2nd year deals... In short the NHL wants this following in regards to player contracts...
- 2yr Rookie deals (instead of 3)
- Delaying salary arbitration and UFA (Unrestricted Free Agency) by 1yr for each circumstance (whichever occurs), thus basically leaving the rookie stuck for 1yr (after year 2) without the possibility of becoming a free agent, his rights are owned by the team, and the team can chose to trade those rights, or negotiate a new deal (or force one). The problem here is it gives the team all of the control, limiting the money they need to pay, having that player under their control for basically 2-7yrs if they chose to (Jeremy Jacobs would've loved to do this to Segin basically)
- A limit to 5yr deals in the 2nd contract
- In this 2nd contract (or any contract), there is a max of 5% of fluctuation year-to-year in how much the player can be paid (prevents front/back loaded contracts, which the league DOES need, if anything, this is the most reasonable of all the league's concerns)
These non-HRR issues will be 1-2 weeks of negotiations once the HRR negotiations are agreed upon, but are still very important rules for the players (even more so than the 50/50 split). Think of it this way... Both sides know they are going to wind up at 50/50, if its 2yrs or 5yrs, its going to be 50/50. So the players then have to think of their rights beyond that. Players have made their most in the past CBA in their 2nd contract and now that is being removed as well too. Pretty much making a player wait til age 28 or his 3rd contract (6-7yrs into being in the league) to hit a big pay day.
The problem here is that in the war of Billionaires vs Millionaires, the Millionaires have received a lot of negotiating, a lot of give-and-take, and that all came to a stop Friday. (https://twitter.com/RenLavoieRDS/status/267098709597241344) Sides only met for 45mins on Sunday and the give-and-take is over. The owners have given a considerable amount of flex over the past 2-3 months, but does not seem to be moving more than this... The NHLPA will now have to decided whether a better deal is still out there to wait on and try to push for, or if this is the best deal they're going to get... If they're push for more, and they're wrong, the NHL can pull this deal back, both sides will dig in, and these offers based on full seasons will be based on a full-season... Next year...
The NHL will announce more cancellations in 2 weeks if significant strides are not made after Thanksgiving weekend. The 5% annual HRR growth is taking a hit every day, the players are not playing (at least not in the US), and the sport itself is on the decline after 6yrs of rebuilding... The argument is over <$70m when it comes to the HRR, which for Millionaires is a lot, but for Billionaires, well I think its as close to even as the players are going to get
. . . . . . . Pink Hat Nation . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sweet Caroline, Fried Chicken, and Beer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Monday, November 12, 2012
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
World Series Preview
The World Series begins tonight in San Francisco, as the Giants host the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have had a week of rest in preparation for this series, after sweeping the Yankees. San Francisco took a very different route to the World Series, having to battle back from 3-1 down against the defending champs, the St Louis Cardinals. Due to the National League winning the All Star Game back in July, the Giants have homefield advantage. Ironically enough, it was the suspended Giants star Melky Cabrera that won the All Star Game MVP, and Tigers ace Justin Verlander who took the loss.
The questions are whether the long layoff will affect Detroit, or perhaps whether having to play so many elimination games will eventually wear down the Giants. The Giants have had to win 6 elimination games in the playoffs this year, coming back from 0-2 down against the Cincinnati Reds, and 3-1 down against the Cardinals.
The Tigers are led by the best 3-4 combo in baseball, Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, as well as reigning Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander. The Giants have been led in the postseason by their 2 and 3 hitters, NLCS MVP Marco Scutaro and Pablo Sandoval, and by Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong on the mound.
The pitching matchup for game 1 is Verlander against former Cy Young winner Barry Zito, who saved the Giants season in game 5 against St Louis, going 7-2/3 shutout innings. The offense will have to carry the Tigers in this series, as I believe the Giants have the pitching advantage in games that Verlander does not pitch, and they also have the stronger bullpen. The Giants weakness is in their lineup. Other than Scutaro and Sandoval, the rest of the Giants lineup is hitting only .217 in the playoffs.
My prediction is that Detroit wins in 6 games, as the offense wakes up once they return home to Comerica Park, and the Giants wear down from all the elimination games they have been forced to play this postseason.
I will be back with a World Series and Postseason review following the conclusion of the World Series.
The questions are whether the long layoff will affect Detroit, or perhaps whether having to play so many elimination games will eventually wear down the Giants. The Giants have had to win 6 elimination games in the playoffs this year, coming back from 0-2 down against the Cincinnati Reds, and 3-1 down against the Cardinals.
The Tigers are led by the best 3-4 combo in baseball, Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, as well as reigning Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander. The Giants have been led in the postseason by their 2 and 3 hitters, NLCS MVP Marco Scutaro and Pablo Sandoval, and by Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong on the mound.
The pitching matchup for game 1 is Verlander against former Cy Young winner Barry Zito, who saved the Giants season in game 5 against St Louis, going 7-2/3 shutout innings. The offense will have to carry the Tigers in this series, as I believe the Giants have the pitching advantage in games that Verlander does not pitch, and they also have the stronger bullpen. The Giants weakness is in their lineup. Other than Scutaro and Sandoval, the rest of the Giants lineup is hitting only .217 in the playoffs.
My prediction is that Detroit wins in 6 games, as the offense wakes up once they return home to Comerica Park, and the Giants wear down from all the elimination games they have been forced to play this postseason.
I will be back with a World Series and Postseason review following the conclusion of the World Series.
NYI first team to Relocate...
Today at 1pm the New York Islanders will announce their move at the end of the 2014-2015 season to begin the 2015-2016 season from the Nassau Colosseum to downtown Brookline, NY at the Barclay's Center (already the new home of the Nets - NBA).
This marks the first official movement of a much needed change for 1 of the 3 franchises that require relocation in the next 3-6yrs. The Edmonton Oilers are rumored to move to Seattle. The Phoenix Coyotes would be next on the table rumored to move to Hamilton, ON or placing a 2nd team in Toronto, ON
The NYI's to the Barclay's Center makes sense for 3 major reason. First being that they were no longer wanted in that community on long island. The city voted the continued lease of the team down multiple times in the past 3yrs and ticket sales were down. Second being ticket sales, the Barclay's Center only holds about 14,000 capacity for hockey and will allow the Islanders to better price and maximize the capacity of a smaller venue (same model that the Atlanta Thrashers used when moving to Winnipeg). These smaller teams need to make these types of moves and as a fan of the game in general this is the right move (let's just hope that area can support 2 teams). Third reason this makes sense is because of the location. New Yorkers didn't want to travel across to Long Island or take the longer train commute. They will maintain their die-hard fans by staying within range for the true fans of the franchise, and will gain a new fan basis, which the league has continued to emphasize. They will get all the help they can get, and if it doesn't work here, then there are more problems than the Islanders can fix themselves...
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Monday, October 22, 2012
Hockey East Preview.... Wildcats #1
Coates' Rankings... Wildcats grab the #1 spot out of the gates

UNH
is off to a hot start outside the division, BC is close behind, and NU
has a few early season wins. UML only had 1 hockey east game (1-1 Tie),
and BU has a conference loss on the record placing them 5th in my
rankings... UVM hasn't had a conference game to date, and we will have a
better idea of who they are along with UMass after this upcoming
weekend... PC, MC, and Maine have all given up some goals in their first
few games, and look to be in rebuilding years as we begin the first few
weeks of action
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Something to Look Forward to if Nov. 2nd Doesn't Happen
While wasting my first hour of the work day looking at random shit on the internet this morning, I stumbled upon something that may need to be worked into the new CBA. As we have mentioned in other posts, and I'm sure everyone knows anyway, many players have signed to play overseas during the lockout. Coates put together a pretty comprehensive list of where everyone is playing. First on that list is Patty Bergeron, who is playing for HC Lugano of the Swiss League. Today I found out that in the Swiss League, the leading scorer on each team has to wear the Post Finance FLAMING HELMET AND JERSEY. I immediately tried to find a picture of Patrice wearing this slick getup. Unfortunately, Bergy has only played in 3 games (that's 10 less than the rest of the team) yet he is already the 5th leading scorer with 8 points (4 goals and 4 assists) in just 3 games. If you clicked on the stats page link you may have noticed that Glen Metropolit is currently wearing the flaming jersey (he's actually leading the entire league in scoring). Yup, the same Glen Metropolit. With Metropolit being the leading scorer and Bergeron's performance so far you have to figure that it is only a matter of time before Bergeron becomes the man on fire. Therefore, from now until either the lockout ends or Bergeron becomes the leading scorer for Lugano, I will be tracking Bergy's progress here as he heats up. Right now he's 9 points back with his next game on Friday against second place ZSC Lions.
P.S. It just dawned on me as I am finishing up this post, that Tyler Seguin is also playing in the Swiss League for EHC Biel. I'll keep track of his quest to be a flammer as well. He currently has 5 points (1 goal, 4 assists) through 7 games, which puts him 5 points away from leading his team, with his next match also on Friday against SC Bern.
P.P.S. Here's what Joe Thornton looks like in his fire helmet. That picture is from 2004 when he played for Davos, where he is already the leading scorer once again this year.
P.S. It just dawned on me as I am finishing up this post, that Tyler Seguin is also playing in the Swiss League for EHC Biel. I'll keep track of his quest to be a flammer as well. He currently has 5 points (1 goal, 4 assists) through 7 games, which puts him 5 points away from leading his team, with his next match also on Friday against SC Bern.
P.P.S. Here's what Joe Thornton looks like in his fire helmet. That picture is from 2004 when he played for Davos, where he is already the leading scorer once again this year.
NHL's New CBA Offer Breakdown...
Here are the top items/highlights from the newest deal. If you did not know what the previous deal was, or how/why things are different now, take a few minutes to read up here and you will get the best spark-notes version I can give you
In my review I conclude that the proposal will be rejected by the players, and the counter-proposal will seek a 50/50 split over the course of the new agreement (Ex. Year 1 55%, Year 2 53%, etc etc). This deal also touches on backloaded/frontloaded contracts that would have to to count within 5% of a "level" contract...
Example Player A has $50m deal over 10yrs... With the expired CBA the contract could look like this... Years 1-7 $3m/yr Years 8-10 $9.67m, thus the cap hit would only be $3m/yr... Under the new agreement these deals and all like it would be "level" so a $50m 10yr deal would have to be within 5% of $5m/year to prevent frontloaded and backloaded deals... This issue could be a sticky one in the deal as so many clubs have these long-term deals that are front/back-loaded and will be a problem for these teams with such salaries
The other focus here is the NHL wants rookie deals at 2yrs (instead of 3) and no contract to be more than 5yrs (for anyone) thus making the "Big Contract" shift from a player's 2nd contract (years 3-7 in his career) to the 3rd contract in which would be that players 8th year + in the league, and shift clubs away from signing players to huge 2nd contracts to signing them to big 3rd contracts instead.
Here are the bullet points, enjoy....
In my review I conclude that the proposal will be rejected by the players, and the counter-proposal will seek a 50/50 split over the course of the new agreement (Ex. Year 1 55%, Year 2 53%, etc etc). This deal also touches on backloaded/frontloaded contracts that would have to to count within 5% of a "level" contract...
Example Player A has $50m deal over 10yrs... With the expired CBA the contract could look like this... Years 1-7 $3m/yr Years 8-10 $9.67m, thus the cap hit would only be $3m/yr... Under the new agreement these deals and all like it would be "level" so a $50m 10yr deal would have to be within 5% of $5m/year to prevent frontloaded and backloaded deals... This issue could be a sticky one in the deal as so many clubs have these long-term deals that are front/back-loaded and will be a problem for these teams with such salaries
The other focus here is the NHL wants rookie deals at 2yrs (instead of 3) and no contract to be more than 5yrs (for anyone) thus making the "Big Contract" shift from a player's 2nd contract (years 3-7 in his career) to the 3rd contract in which would be that players 8th year + in the league, and shift clubs away from signing players to huge 2nd contracts to signing them to big 3rd contracts instead.
Here are the bullet points, enjoy....
- There were several contradicting reports out there Tuesday regarding the entry-level system, but multiple sources confirmed the new proposal would see ELS go from three years to two years in length. The one caveat is that if you’re a player for example that’s coming from college and joining your NHL team late in the season -- think Chris Kreider of the Rangers -- that doesn’t count against your two-year, entry-level commitment. You would still have to play two full seasons under an entry-level deal. What the offer Tuesday laid out is two full seasons of entry level.
- You may wonder why the heck the league would want to shorten the entry-level deal. Combined with the fact that the league also asked for a five-year limit on term for contracts and UFA eligibility to go to eight years or 28 years old, what the league is trying to do here is change the dynamics of the second contract -- limit the financial flexibility of the second contract -- and change the system so that players now make their big money in the third contract.
- Where as a 50-50 split of revenues would see the 2012-13 salary cap lowered to $59.9 million, the league’s offer calls for all 30 teams to be able to spend up to $70.2 million (this past summer’s cap) for the first year of the deal; essentially giving all 30 teams a 12-month transition period. By Year 2 they must comply with the cap. This is significant given the number of teams that would have been over the cap with not very much time to get under it before the puck drops.
- There are tighter restrictions on the year-to-year salary in player contracts. The salaries can only increase or decrease by no more than 5 percent. Again, this is an attempt to mitigate the "cheat deals" and front-loading that happened in the past CBA. The league’s initial offer in July called for flat salaries across all contracts, so this is a bit of a change, although not much.
- The NHL offer proposes to make the salaries of minor-league players on NHL contracts (above a threshold of $105,000) count against the salary cap. This is to prevent teams from stashing players in the minors (think Wade Redden).
- Embracing an idea first proposed by Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke years ago, the league’s offer included the ability to retain salary in trades. Under the expired CBA, teams could not trade or keep parts of a player’s salary in a trade. This new provision would obviously facilitate trades in a cap market that saw deals minimized, especially in the first half of the season.
- All existing NHL contracts which go longer than five years will be subject to new cap calculations, specifically those deals will count against a team's cap regardless of whether the player is still playing or not. My belief here is that this is the NHL's attempt at correcting the so-called "cheat deals" or back-diving deals -- like those of Marian Hossa or Roberto Luongo -- which carry bogus salaries at the end of deals to lower the cap hit.
- There were conflicting reports about the dynamics or definition of hockey-related revenue in this offer. To be clear: a league source says the NHL does NOT try to change the definition of HRR in this offer like it attempted to in the summer. These are the same old definitions of HRR used in this new offer. Having said that, my guess is that giving the back and forth on HRR language all summer long, the NHLPA will seek further clarification on this Wednesday in its phone call with the league.
- It is a six-year deal with a "mutual option" for a seventh year.
- As part of NHL’s new revenue sharing plan which calls for $200 million, at least 50 percent of the pool will be raised from the top 10 revenue grossing clubs; the distribution of the revenue sharing will be determined every year by a revenue sharing committee (which the NHLPA will be part of).
- In the end, the most important part of this offer and the one that players will have the most focus on is the league’s complicated mechanism in which it says players’ salaries will be kept whole in first few years via deferred payments, etc. My guess is that the NHLPA will try to poke holes in this and would prefer to keep it more simple and have a higher percentage of HRR in the opening few years -- some transition down to 50-50 instead of going to 50-50 right form the start.
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